Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
